Reporting, epidemic growth, and reproduction numbers for the 2019-nCoV epidemic: understanding control


Cumulative cases (model estimates) represent outbreak size estimated using data on international case exportations [Imai et al.].

Cumulative cases (reported) are based on publicly-available data [BNO News] We have continued to plot virologically-confirmed cases for comparability across the time series. After 12 Feb 2020, formal case counts reported by Hubei province included both virologically-confirmed symptomatic cases and “clinically diagnosed” cases, which have symptoms of respiratory illness and radiographic evidence of pneumonia.The default values for the serial interval and basic reproduction number are from an analysis of the early transmission dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, published by Li […]


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